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Currency war: Nguyên nhân bắt đầu từ Trung Quốc à Mỹ -> Nhật -> toàn thế giới?

Kinh tế Mỹ chưa hồi phục như mong đợi, Nhật bản cũng tương tự, với QE2 của Mỹ và Nhật công bố, việc print money lần này như đổ thêm dầu vào lữa của cuộc chiến phá giá tiền tệ? Hiện nay, sau khi Mỹ công bố gói QE 2 và duy trì lãi suất thấp (0 – 0,25%, Fed Fund Rate), Australia cũng tương tự, giữ nguyên LS cơ bản (RBA Cash Rate) ở mức 4,5%, không tăng như dự báo (tăng thêm khoảng 0,25%), Nhật vửa công bố gói QE dự trữ mua lại các trái phiếu và giảm LS cơ bản (Overnight Call Rate) xuống còn 0 – 0,1% (từ mức 0,1%). Hiện tại, lãi suất của khu vực Euro Zone (Refinance Rate) đang duy trì ở mức 1%, Lãi suất cơ bản của Bank of Canada (BoC overnight Rate) ở mức 0,75%)

Some links this week:

  • IMF and World Bank call for cooler heads on currencies (RT)
  • Is a currency war coming? (MW) The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are trying to weaken their respective currencies. China is allowing its currency, the yuan, to strengthen, but not quickly enough for the U.S. In addition to this potential currency manipulation, we have the Bank of Japan and The Federal Reserve engaging in economic stimulus programs called quantitative easing, which is a new way to debase currency through the digital printing of money
  • Currency War Heats Up on Japan’s Interest Rate Move (Seeking Alpha)
  • Còn đây là theo Edward Harisson (Credit Writedowns): First the Rate Reductions, Then Money Printing (QE 2, Lãi suất cận zero và quỹ dự trữ mua các GTCG của Mỹ và Nhật), Then the Currency War, Then the Tariffs (nhiều khả năng Mỹ sẽ đi đầu!), Then…

About Currency War quotes (Tổng hợ từ Reuters):

  • Dominique Strauss-Kahn, IMF Managing Director, Interview with Financial Times Oct 5: “There is clearly the idea beginning to circulate that currencies can be used as a policy weapon.”
  • “Translated into action, such an idea would represent a very serious risk to the global recovery… any such approach would have a negative and very damaging longer-run impact.”
  • Joseph Stiglitz, Oct 5 to reporters: “The irony is that the fed is creating all this liquidity with the hope that it will revive the american economy.” “It’s doing nothing for the American economy, but it’s causing chaos over the rest of the world. It’s a very strange policy that they are pursuing.”
  • Jean-Claude Juncker, Chairman of Euro zone Finance Ministers; news conference Oct 5: “China’s real effective exchange rate remains undervalued.” “The Chinese authorities do not share our view.”
  • Subir Gokarn, Indian Central Bank Deputy Governor: Oct 5 to a private equity conference: “It is becoming a larger global problem because of the imbalance, that there is so much of liquidity and the returns are skewed towards emerging markets.” “So it is emerging as a potential threat and we are clearly thinking of ways in which we can deal with it.”
  • Robert Zoellick, World Bank President, Oct 4: “I don’t foresee that we’re moving into an era of global currency wars but there are clearly going to be tensions.” “Money is chasing yield. It can’t find those yields in developed economies and this is not only pushing up currency values in developing countries… (but) also pushing up prices in assets with the risk of bubbles in property and some commodities.”
  • Stanley Fischer, Israel Central Bank Governor: Oct 3 to Reuters, following a news conference: “There is no doubt that without intervention the shekel would be much stronger.” “But we are not China – we are not going to buy $500 billion next year.”
  • Perng Fai-nan, Taiwan Central Bank Governor: Sept 30 in press conference: “The U.S. printed a lot of money, so there’s a lot of hot money flowing around. We see hot money in Taiwan and elsewhere in asia. These short-term capital flows are disturbinig emerging economies.”
  • Henrique Meirelles, Brazil Central Bank Governor; to news conference Sept 29: “Evidently, there is a very serious currency problem which should be ad- dressed. It’s not necessarily a war. Some countries seem to have a problem… Brazil is not going to pay the price.”
  • Guido Mantega, Brazil Finance Minister: speech on Sept 27: “We’re in the midst of an international currency war. This threatens us be- cause it takes away our competitiveness.”
  • Chen Jian, China Vice Commerce Minister; to media in Taiwan Sept. 27 on proposed U.S. bill to force China to allow the Yuan to rise in value: “We’ll make a decision based on our own economic development levels and the world economic situation. If it takes the yuan to appreciate for our econo- my to develop, we will do it even though it would have negative impact.” “But it is redundant for the u.S. congress to pass the proposal.”
  • Yoshihiko Noda, Japan Finance Finister: Sept 17 to news conference regarding Japan’s intervention to weaken the Yen: “I’m aware that there are various opinions. But Japan’s stance is that a pro- longed yen rise is undesirable as the economy remains in a severe situation with ongoing deflation. It is important to consistently explain our stance to the international community.”
  • Juncker: Sept 15 to media when asked about Japan’s intervention: “Unilateral actions are not the appropriate way to deal with global imbalances.”